2025 headwinds cause headaches for Vegas, New York casinos

Throughout 2025, the conversations in the US surrounding the retail casino industry centred primarily on two locales, Las Vegas and downstate New York. At the start of the year, Las Vegas was still running on a record stretch of performance post-Covid, while New York served as a beacon of optimism for land-based growth, perhaps the most exciting market opening in decades.

Unfortunately for stakeholders, a growing list of regulatory, economic and operational challenges has thrown cold water on the future prospects for both, at least for now.

Las Vegas was a national storyline for much of 2025, though largely for negative reasons. High-profile anti-money laundering scandals combined with sharp tourism drops and macroeconomic headwinds made the city a flashpoint for nationwide debates, and those issues won’t disappear when the calendar turns to 1 January.

New York began the year as the industry’s darling, with an expansive list of 11 preliminary proposals from the world’s premier operators wanting to develop casinos. What followed was a gruelling 12 months filled with local pushback, cutthroat politics and an ever-increasing demand to raise stakes to stay competitive. The gradual erosion of bidders left just three somewhat unlikely finalists for three licences, eliminating much of the suspense and sparking uncertainty over whether the juice was ultimately worth the squeeze.

Both of the major markets will look toward 2026 with a renewed sense of optimism. Las Vegas is hoping the past year was a blip in the road toward future sports and entertainment growth, while the new New York licensees will begin construction on their projects. Resorts World NYC in particular will come online in a few months and start generating much-needed tax revenue. The difficulties of this year, however, have surely knocked some of the luster off both markets.

Did warning signs in late 2024 signal 2025 trouble for Las Vegas?

In some ways, 2025 was bound to be disappointing for Las Vegas. By late 2024 the market was finally levelling off from a multi-year record run — visitation was flat the final two months of last year and the second Formula 1 Grand Prix event was well below the 2023 race in terms of economic impact. Then in Q1 this year, the absence of the Super Bowl after hosting one in February 2024 made fair year-over-year comparisons all but impossible.

Things really started to get rocky when US President Donald Trump took office in late January. Trump quickly embarked on aggressive tariff and trade policies, and offhand comments about Canada as the “51st state” contributed to an international tourism lag that persisted all year.

The most recent airport data from October shows that total traffic and international traffic are both down 5% year-to-date. Nearly every tourism metric from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has shown decline all year. A 43-day government shutdown impacting millions of federal workers over the fall did not help either of those matters.

A firestorm of AML problems for Sin City

That said, Las Vegas’ economic woes in 2025 were far from the only worry for the city’s chief industry. From a regulatory perspective, this year was among the worst in Nevada’s 94-year casino history. Four Las Vegas Strip entities — Resorts World Las Vegas, MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts and Caesars Entertainment — were hit with major AML fines, totaling $32.3 million among them.

The Resorts World, MGM and Caesars cases all revolved around the same individual, convicted illegal bookmaker Mathew Bowyer. Bowyer, who rose to fame as the illegal bookie to former Shohei Ohtani interpreter Ippei Mizuhara, was allowed to frequent all three companies’ properties for years despite suspicions about his source of funds.

Wynn’s case was unrelated to Bowyer but was perhaps just as damning. The company paid the lowest of the 2025 state-issued fines ($5.5 million) for extensive unlicensed money transfer violations, but only after forfeiting $130 million to the federal government in 2024. That total was “believed to be the largest forfeiture by a casino based on admissions of criminal wrongdoing”, the government said at the time.

Mixed results, uncertain forecasts

From a business perspective, results were mixed around southern Nevada. MGM and Caesars had up-and-down years trying to appeal to all guests, whereas Wynn fared better in its reliance on ultra-luxury clientele. Local and downtown operators like Boyd and Red Rock had great years feasting on the influx of value customers, but the fact that tourism never rebounded is worrying for the entire market.

This disparity in performance makes it difficult to forecast or cast generalities. Comparisons with multiple years of record revenue also make any underperformance feel worse. 2025 was still a very good year performance-wise overall, among the best ever despite the difficulties. The question now is whether 2026 will return to growth.

Las Vegas- based consultant Brendan Bussmann of B Global Advisors said that while he disagrees with “the Chicken Little notion that ‘the sky is falling’” in Las Vegas, there is still work to be done to bring patrons back in 2026.

“This is where we have the opportunity to double down on what we’ve always done well, which is reinvent ourselves and figure out what we need to do for our next chapter,” Bussmann said. “And that means heavily investing in the consumer and making sure whatever segment that is, we meet and exceed their expectations.

“While our friends in Canada, and to some extent Mexico, haven’t been thrilled with us the last 10 months, at some point they will come back. But if you look at every other international destination, we’ve either stayed the same or we’ve grown slightly.”

New York went from a who’s-who to who’s-left in 2025

In the case of New York, the potential warning signs of a shift in sentiment started small. In early April, Hudson’s Bay Co. became the first entity to withdraw from consideration for one of three possible downstate casino licences, though this was largely ignored. Its Saks Fifth Avenue casino plan was never considered one of the more serious bids. It felt different two weeks later when international giant Las Vegas Sands announced its own withdrawal.

Sands said the potential legalisation of iGaming in New York was too great a risk for its $7.6 billion Long Island bid. That conviction reshaped the narrative that the market was simply too lucrative to walk away from, and a month later, Wynn pulled the plug on its $12 billion Hudson Yards proposal. Wynn’s reasoning was political, with the operator asserting that “we, or any casino operator, will face years of persistent opposition despite our willingness to employ 5,000 New Yorkers”.

As Wynn foretold, it was around that time that applicants had to dig in politically to obtain necessary rezoning approvals and other sign-offs. The applicants’ manoeuvering at this stage was in full view, such as Metropolitan Park sidestepping one Queens state senator in favour of another and Bally’s receiving two city council boosts from outgoing Mayor Eric Adams.

By the time the first key deadline arrived in June, there were eight finalists. Those that stayed went through a brutal community advisory process over the summer, during which applicants heard vehement pushback from local residents. Shouting matches, duelling picket signs and even police interventions became common across the many hours of public hearings.

This animosity tanked all three bids based in Manhattan, leaving some to wonder whether the stratospheric market projections could be reached without the help of NYC’s premier borough for wealth and tourism.

MGM withdrawal the most surprising twist

In any case, four finalists emerged — Bally’s, MGM, Resorts World and Metropolitan Park — and it appeared that the quartet was set to duke it out for the three available licences. MGM, however, became the fourth and most shocking withdrawal in October.

The company had been considered a heavy favourite from the start due to its existing Empire City racino, which has operated for years and would have had a quicker speed to market over greenfield projects. MGM’s abrupt exit came approximately one month after CEO Bill Hornbuckle vented frustration over several aspects of the licensing process at a Bank of America conference.

What started as an ultra-competitive race ended with something of a whimper. The three finalists were essentially rubber-stamped through the final two stages, with the consensus opinion being that the state could not afford to lose any more potential revenue from gaming licences and taxes.

Despite concerns about each project raised by the state’s Gaming Facility Location Board, the winners were approved unanimously. Ironically, none of the finalists’ capital investments were high enough to warrant full 30-year licences, with that framework being finalised after bids were due.

‘New York is no longer extreme — they’re becoming typical’

MGM’s exit was perhaps most beneficial to Bally’s, which represented the most surprising winner in New York. The company’s market analysis, undertaken by consultancy Victor Strategies, was the most conservative of the finalists, coming in below the state’s internal projections. This cautious approach coupled with an unorthodox Bronx location and a willingness to expand community benefits helped differentiate Bally’s from its peers.

Gene Johnson, Victor Strategies’ executive vice president, told iGB he was “amazed” by the potential of the market when the process began.

“From an analyst’s perspective of doing feasibility, [New York] was the mother lode, if you will,” Johnson said.

Yet even Johnson was “prepared for disappointment” as 2025 went along, with Bally’s considered a longshot. MGM, by contrast, “stood a much better chance of getting a licence”, he surmised. The end result of having three properties somewhat clustered in the outer boroughs may not be the exact scenario stakeholders envisioned, or wanted. However, this grouping “might exert more gravity as a collective attraction” than isolated properties spread throughout the region, Johnson said.

In the coming years there will be fresh concerns over whether licensees can thrive in what is considered an onerous regulatory environment. New York is tied for the highest sports betting tax rate in the US (51%) and the incoming casinos will face significant rates. Resorts World will pay 56% and 30% for slots and table games, respectively, while Bally’s will pay 30% and 10% and Metropolitan Park will pay 25% and 10%.

“We have to remember that gambling is a sin industry, and we operate at the pleasure of the powers that be,” Johnson said. “You’re seeing more and more efforts to squeeze tax revenue out of gambling operations and New York is no longer extreme — they’re becoming typical.”

Jess Marquez

Jess has covered the global gaming industry since 2022. A native of Reno, Nevada, he’d like to note that it’s Ne-va-da, not Ne-VAH-da.