The costs and control of being a sharp bookmaker

For the latest edition of the SBC Leaders magazine, Ted Menmuir, SBC’s Editor-at-Large, talked all things trading with two prominent executives, examining the discipline as AI ushers in changes and new pressures.

At the mid-point of a transformative decade for all gambling disciplines, it is wise for audiences to review the evolution of values and dynamics placed on operators.

Many observers anticipated that the 2020s would mark a period defined by expansion into new markets in North and South America, amid the backdrop of stagnation and competitive fatigue across heritage markets in Europe.

For all the change, the demands on leadership remain plain and simple as investors demand operators expand their market access, drive scale and take market share –best put bluntly as  “plan, strategize and execute”.

Yet the real shift has occurred beneath the radar, and within the balance sheets. Sportsbooks, once relentlessly growth-driven and expansionist in nature, are now contending with a new commercial reality: margin pressure.  

A naked reality as investors sentiment has pivoted on how to value gambling business, in which efficiency, is now the dominant factor. The focus is no longer on gross gaming revenue alone, but on underlying profitability, sustainable cost control, and operational efficiency.

Across all tier-1 sportsbooks, the recalibration has triggered a strategic rethink, which for leadership  starts at the core discipline of risk management.

As cost efficiency dominates all strategies, the industry’s traditional playbook of generous promotions, mass bonusing, and customer valuations are being re-examined as cost of growth is now viewed as a threat to margin.

Automation cannot displace nuance

Strategic changes to the composition of modern sportsbooks have been closely followed by Matthew Trenhaile, Managing Director of Anubis Trading. A veteran of both Pinnacle and Sportradar, Trenhaile, now works directly with bookmakers to optimise their trading models for high-exposure events where traditional margin control often breaks down.

Trenhaile, remains a firm believer in building sportsbook infrastructure from the ground up starting with the trading room. In his view, the shifting commercial priorities of the sector must not come at the expense of the foundational principles of risk. “Trading should be the hub of the wheel. If they’re not, you’re missing a trick,” he observes. 

Yet as operators respond to investor calls for cost discipline, many are reducing headcount on the trading floor and leaning heavily on automation. AI-driven pricing models, algorithmic trading systems, and real-time monitoring tools are being deployed to maintain market coverage at scale and speed.

But Trenhaile, cautions that automation should not run in contradiction to cost control—it should support it. Critically, these systems must not replace the tactical learnings, nuances and live decision-making that experienced trading teams have. “The trader is still the only one who sees customer behaviour in real time. They know what bets are coming in and what patterns are emerging. They see the lifeblood of the sportsbook.”

Whilst technology enables efficiency, the competitive edge lies in how it’s combined with human expertise. Removing traders entirely, or relegating them to passive roles, risks stripping sportsbooks of the very insights that make risk management commercially intelligent.

Managing sharp action

A coalface perspective is offered by Ivan Gojic, Chief Product Officer at SuperBet— the leading sportsbook across Balkan markets and one of the few operators in Europe to achieve genuine scale beyond its home market. Backed by over £1bn in investment from private equity firm Blackstone, SuperBet represents a modern case study in how operational discipline, product innovation and commercial performance can be aligned.

For Gojic, the debate is not whether sportsbooks can control sharp action, but whether they should even try to. In his view, true value lies in operational sharpness, not aggressive limitation. “You’re going to get picked off—maybe by 5% of your customers but if your systems are built to learn from that and adjust in real time, you’ll come out ahead.”

He adds: “Too often, risk is framed as a threat instead of an opportunity. You’ll always have strong bettors. Your job is to know who they are, what they want, and where you can still make margin. That’s what investors care about: a sportsbook that knows the value of every bet it takes.”

Gojic argues that what defines a “sharp sportsbook” in today’s market is not its ability to eliminate risk, but its ability to manage exposure smartly, especially under cost pressure. This sharpness—rooted in scalable infrastructure, data intelligence, and smart feedback loops is increasingly what appeals to investors. In other words, it’s not about “catching every edge case; it’s about showing that the business is structurally sound and commercially aware of where value lies.”

As operators continue to automate and standardise, the risk is that they spend disproportionate energy defending against a small percentage of sophisticated customers, rather than optimising for the 90%+ of users who represent recurring, recreational value. Gojic warns that “hyper-defensive trading, where risk is equated with exposure alone may create more churn than it prevents, preventing long-term growth”.  

Put simply, managing sharp action is not the same as controlling it. The former requires awareness and adaptation; the latter, if pursued too rigidly, can undermine both profitability and user experience.

Uniformity is the real exposure 

Investor pressure on bookmakers to maintain a recreational model for each specific market has brought a wave of structural pressures on the management of bookmakers. As such,  Most operators follow a “low risk, high control” approach—pricing markets defensively, limiting bet size exposure, and automating restriction thresholds to reduce volatility.

The above model has proven commercially efficient, particularly in regulated markets where compliance demands, bonus caps and tax burdens tighten margins. But in the process, a new and arguably overlooked vulnerability has emerged: uniformity itself.

“If every bookmaker is avoiding sharp action and aggressively defending against any perceived risk, then who is left to service the serious bettor?” Gojic, noted. 

As sportsbooks converge around similar pricing, limits, and UX frameworks, the high-value segments once seen as vital to market liquidity and brand differentiation are now under served. 

“We’re still more focused on the bad customers than the good. That’s the wrong way around,” he remarked. His view underscores a growing sentiment that by treating risk as a threat to be excluded rather than a discipline that needs to be managed, as many operators are sacrificing long-term value for short-term control.

2025 has already shown that volatility is not going away, simply look at the exposure of NFL Playoffs bets impact on Flutter Entertainment’s year-end results, in which the NYSE/FTSE gambling group had to explain a swing of $100m on the profitability of the FanDuel business to disgruntled investors. 

Outcomes driven by long-shot parlays, multi-leg accumulators, and mass surges via influencers or Telegram channels have become common — especially in hyper-social, high-frequency markets like Brazil. . These events routinely disrupt risk models and trigger public questioning of the bookmaker’s generosity and exposure.

But for trading teams, investor concerns over promotions of generous odds, incentives and accumulators is misplaced. The issue is not ‘generosity’but  aptitude. Operators that understand volatility, segment their customer base correctly, and manage pricing intelligently are better positioned to withstand short-term turbulence without retreating into uniformity.

No room for sensitivities

Risk management will remain the apex discipline of sports betting regardless of regulatory shifts, evolving customer behaviour, or investor-led pressures for cost controls. It remains at its core function that ultimately defines whether a sportsbook thrives or stalls.

Yet the dynamics of risk are changing. Automation, data, and intelligence systems now govern vast areas of pricing, customer management, and market exposure. What was once an instinctive craft is becoming a science of scale and speed.

Still, the question remains: as we close out the decade, will risk management continue to be treated as the do-or-die domain it once was? Or will its edge be dulled by the creeping uniformity and overreliance on automated systems. This may well determine the winners and losers of the next generation of sportsbooks.