Polymarket expands into real estate prediction markets

The predictions platform has announced a collaboration with Parcl to expand beyond sports betting markets.

US.- The prediction platform Polymarket has announced a collaboration with Parcl, a crypto-backed housing data provider, to introduce real estate prediction markets. The new offering will allow users to speculate on home-price movements in major US cities, with outcomes determined by Parcl’s daily housing indices.

The rollout will begin with what the companies describe as “high-liquidity cities,” before expanding to additional metropolitan areas based on demand. Through the integration, traders will be able to take positions on whether city-level housing indices end higher or lower across monthly, quarterly, or annual timeframes.

Rival Kalshi already offers markets on rent increases in San Francisco and New York, for which it uses data from Zillow and StreetEasy. However, Parcl provides daily housing indices rather than monthly updates, which could give it an edge for short-term speculation.

Polymarket has been under pressure to expand beyond sports betting, which currently accounts for about half of its trading volume, followed by crypto price markets. Sports wagering places the platform in direct competition with regulated sportsbooks, resulting in scrutiny from state gambling regulators.

In contrast, housing-linked contracts are more easily framed as financial instruments rather than gambling products. The move into real estate is part of Polymarket’s broader strategy to diversify revenue streams and differentiate itself from both sportsbooks and rival prediction platforms.

Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the US after nearly four years offline following enforcement action by the CFTC. It’s received multiple cease-and-desist orders from state regulators.

The company has also caused controversy amid allegations of insider trading on Venezuela-related markets. Reports from The Wall Street Journal and other outlets revealed that traders placed unusually large bets on President Nicolás Maduro being ousted shortly before US military strikes were reported.

The matter has also sparked a row over the language in contracts. Polymarket has taken the view that Donald Trump’s statement about the US “running” Venezuela does not count as a an “invasion”.

“Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness,” on users wrote, according to the Financial Times. “A military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”

Meanwhile, FanDuel to launch predictions markets in states where sports betting is not yet legal. Trump Media and Technology Group has announced plans to introduce prediction markets on its social media platform Truth Social with Crypto.com, and DraftKings has announced the acquisition of Railbird Technologies and its subsidiary Railbird Exchange to enter into the prediction markets space.

Matchbook is launching prediction market platform in Britain as a road test for a planned US expansion.

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