Las Vegas struggles plague MGM despite other wins in Q4, 2025

An MGM Resorts earnings report that arrived earlier than expected showed modest gains in Q4 and 2025 driven primarily by strong performance from digital and Macau segments, while US regional and Las Vegas businesses were flat and declining, respectively.

MGM Resorts moved up its financial results and earnings call by a week because of an inadvertent leak.

Most of the commentary and questions Thursday centred on struggles in Las Vegas. The city is grappling with an extended visitation slump, and MGM is vulnerable to these headwinds given its wide range of offerings from premium to mass-market. Brands catering to either luxury or local patrons like Wynn or Red Rock have pulled ahead, while full-spectrum operators like MGM and Caesars are struggling.

MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle repeatedly stressed optimism for the market, but the stream of follow-ups from analysts suggested they perhaps were unconvinced.

“2024 was an amazing year [in Las Vegas], and so 2025 was difficult,” Hornbuckle said. “Yeah, we need to solve for Canada and leisure travel, but generally speaking, we feel very positive. Positive enough to think we’re going to exit 2026 on the up.”

The company posted group net revenue of $4.6 billion in Q4, a 6% increase year-over-year, and $17.5 billion in 2025, a 1.7% increase. Notably, net income nearly doubled from $157 million in Q4 2024 to $293 million last quarter, but that was overshadowed by the company’s year-end total plummeting from $746.5 million in 2024 to $205 million in 2025.

Las Vegas operations saw net revenue and adjusted EBITDAR declines for both the quarter and the full year. Revenue declined 3% YoY in Q4 ($2.2 billion) and 4% YoY in 2025 ($8.4 billion). Segment EBITDAR decreased 4% for the quarter and 8% for the year.

Analysts split on future projections

Analysts were somewhat split on the results, though the market has been positive; as of Friday afternoon shares traded around $37, up 10% over the prior week. The stock has been relatively steady of late, sitting up 6% over the previous six months and up 8% over the last year.

Macquarie’s Chad Beynon was bullish in his analysis, rating MGM as an “outperform” while raising the target price to $46.

“MGM remains an Outperform on strong business diversification (58% Vegas, 25% Regional, 11% Macau, 6% Digital),” Beynon wrote. “We regard its balance-sheet strength, supportive shareholders and goal to be a global entertainment leader as key positives.”

Truist’s Barry Jonas, on the other hand, was more cautious, issuing a “hold” rating with a target price of $39. Jonas said that while “management makes a good case for a return to growth”, the messaging hasn’t changed much from this point last year.

“While we see MGM as a best in class diversified operator, we think shares tend to pivot to Strip performance and believe there could be downside to consensus estimates given continuing leisure consumer malaise appears to be more than offsetting Group driven upside for 2026,” Jonas wrote. “We do see a path for a return to growth later this year but expect better or similar entry points.”

MGM Grand upgrades, upcoming shows to anticipate

Hornbuckle and MGM brass gave two primary reasons why shareholders should expect better Las Vegas performance ahead: completion of last year’s MGM Grand remodels and the city’s always-busy event calendar, like the return of the CON/AGG construction trade show in early March.

CON/AGG is the largest construction convention in North America, though it only takes place every three years. In 2023, the show drew a record 139,000 attendees from more than 130 countries.

Overall, Hornbuckle asserted there are “signs of stabilisation” on the horizon. The $300 million MGM Grand renovations were completed in November, with Hornbuckle saying he had “never seen” a property so disrupted.

“Like a lot of companies in the hospitality industry, over the last year or so we did see that shortening of the booking window, but that being said, we’re paying close attention to that customer, and we are starting to see a response — particularly to large-scale events — that feels positive to us,” COO Ayesha Molino said on the call.

Regionals flat but steady amid Vegas fluctuation

On the regional side, revenue bumped 2% over the prior period to $950 million in Q4, though adjusted EBITDAR was almost exactly flat at $280 million. Year-end totals were similarly stable, increasing revenue and adjusted EBITDAR by 1% and 2%, respectively.

This was MGM’s first call since its surprise withdrawal from the New York casino process last fall. Instead of pursuing a full downstate licence, the company opted to keep its Empire City racino in Yonkers as is while selling its Northfield Park racino in Ohio for $546 million a few days later. The conservative move was perhaps a reflection of the company’s desire to keep its regional business stable as it pursues growth elsewhere.

Molino told analysts MGM is “proud of how steady those assets have remained, and we continue to see that steadiness”.

One potential boost to the company’s regional fortunes might be the construction of a new Sphere entertainment venue in Maryland, near MGM National Harbor. The Las Vegas Strip version has become a global entertainment destination, and Sphere Entertainment CEO James Dolan said in a recent statement that his focus “has always been on creating a global network of Spheres across forward-looking cities”.

“If it’s executed as thought about, it could deliver a couple million more customers a year [at National Harbor],” Hornbuckle said on the call. “So we remain very excited by some of our regional properties. They’re well-placed, they’re great assets, and we think they’ll continue to grow over time.”

Little interest in Macau, digital

Very little was said Thursday about digital and Macau performance, though both were catalysts for growth in Q4 and 2025.

MGM China’s Q4 revenue increased 21% YoY to $1.2 billion, and its adjusted EBITDAR for the quarter jumped 30% to $332 million. For the calendar year, both revenue ($4 billion) and adjusted EBITDAR ($1.2 billion) increased 11% over 2024.

The company’s biggest overall growth target is the MGM Osaka development in Japan. MGM is currently the sole licensee in the country and projects a 2030 opening. After the New York pivot, Osaka is MGM’s largest ongoing project.

On the digital side, Q4 revenue of $188 million represented a 35% increase YoY. Its adjusted EBITDAR loss of $7 million for the quarter was up from a $22 million loss in the prior period. Full-year revenue grew 19%, though the adjusted EBITDAR loss grow from $77 million in 2024 to $90 million in 2025.

BetMGM also had its best year ever in 2025, and it distributed $135 million back to MGM during Q4. That represented more than 20% of MGM’s original cash investment in BetMGM, which is a joint venture with Entain. BetMGM is not included in MGM’s digital results, which only count its LeoVegas subsidiary and related businesses.

Jess Marquez

Jess has covered the global gaming industry since 2022. A native of Reno, Nevada, he’d like to note that it’s Ne-va-da, not Ne-VAH-da.