Favorites Burn Sportsbooks, but Florida Loss ‘Saved the Day’

Favorites dominated in the first two rounds of March Madness, going 20-0 during one stretch, but sportsbooks enjoyed a huge win when No. 1 Florida was upset by No. 9 Iowa on Sunday.

The Gators were among the betting favorites entering the NCAA Tournament, and their surprising loss was a boon for sportsbooks.

“That stopped the barrage of favorite bettors and moneyline parlays,” Caesars Sports Head of Basketball Trading Rich Zanco said. “Iowa winning was a huge need. It saved the day.”

Gators Get Gone, Sportsbooks Get Paid

Florida was favored by as many as 10.5 points on the spread over Iowa. The Gators were -550 on the moneyline, giving them an 84.62% implied probability of winning the game outright.

“It was one-way action on Florida. And there were a lot of Florida parlays on the moneyline and the spread,” Zanco said. “Obviously, Iowa winning and knocking Florida out of the championship futures is pretty significant.”

Zanco said that Caesars Sports took a “significant” six-figure bet on Florida -10 shortly before the game tipped.

Big upsets are a staple of March Madness seemingly every year. With defending champion Florida now out, the other No. 1 seeds — Arizona, Michigan, and Duke — reside at the top of the national championship betting board.

Sportsbooks also benefited from Florida’s exit from the futures market. SuperBook Vice President John Murray noted that Florida was one of his book’s biggest liabilities.

“That’s a great outcome for us. All the moneyline parlay liability was building to Florida and Arizona,” Murray said. “It’s great to get Florida out of the futures book, as well. That was huge for us.”

He added, “I don’t want to get to the Final Four and have Florida and Duke still there.”

Duke remains after beating TCU, 81-58, on Saturday. The Blue Devils narrowly avoided their own upset against No. 16 Siena in the opening round.

Bettors Benefit From Epic Run By Favorites

Moneyline parlays combining favorites are popular among many bettors, myself included. The spread is irrelevant with these bets, and the favorites just need to win the game outright. This one combining Iowa, St. John’s, Houston, and Illinois, cashed on Saturday.

Favorites won all 16 games on Friday and the first four on Saturday, allowing bettors to clean up on these favorite-based moneyline parlays.

“The barrage of favorites kept rolling in, and we couldn’t buy an underdog,” Zanco said. “Bettors especially had success on Saturday with Michigan and Michigan State, and then rolled it into the Duke game.”

He added, “Bettors did extremely well Saturday.”