Google employee facing fraud charges

Weeks after the indictment of a US Army special forces member for insider dealings on prediction markets, a Google employee is the latest to face charges for using non-public information to seek a financial gain on the new platforms.

Michele Spagnuolo, who allegedly traded under the Polymarket account “AlphaRaccoon”, is facing multiple charges in Manhattan related to insider trading. The charges stem from his alleged scheme to misappropriate confidential information from Google, then use the information to place a series of profitable Google-related trades on the prediction market, according to prosecutors.

Prosecutors allege that Spagunolo accessed a Google software tool that provided real-time data on its “Year in Search” ranking. Over a three-month period through December 2024, he allegedly made at least 25 trades totaling $2.75 million on the search-results markets. Spagnuolo, 36, made an illegal profit of at least $1.2 million on the trades, according to the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York. He is facing charges on commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering, according to the indictments.

“Today’s charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets,” said US Attorney Jay Clayton in a statement. “Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted.”

On Friday, there were more than three dozen markets on Kalshi involving event contracts pertaining to Google. Most notably, Kalshi is listing a contract on the No. 1 searched person on Google this year. US President Donald Trump ranked first at 17%, ahead of Bad Bunny and Elon Musk at 16% and 10%, respectively. The market had trading volume of approximately $184,000 on Friday afternoon.

Kalshi makes history with crypto “perps” approval

On Friday, Kalshi also became the first company in US history to gain regulatory approval for the listing of crypto perpetual futures on a prediction market. Commonly known as “perps”, perpetual futures are derivatives that enable traders to speculate on the future price of an asset such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, without actually owning the underlying asset. One of the most attractive features of “perps” is that the derivatives offer the same characteristics as a traditional futures contract, but without an expiration date.

Kalshi received the green light when the US Commodity Futures Commission issued an Order for Approval for the listing of the BTCPERP Contract, a perpetual contract that references the spot price of Bitcoin, as a futures contract. The action charts a path for “one of the most liquid segments of the crypto asset markets to exist within the US regulatory framework”, CFTC Chair Michael Selig wrote on his X account.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described success on prediction markets as the company’s first chapter within its long-term business objectives. Mansour indicated that Kalshi continually seeks to fulfill its mission that “every important question about the world should have a market”. He further believes that perpetual futures represent the next chapter, removing a constraint on the world of finance.

“If a prediction market is a photograph of what the world thinks right now, a perpetual is a film — continuously updated, never ending, always present,” he wrote in a statement.

Spurs’ odds improve after season-saving win

Despite a resounding win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night, the San Antonio Spurs still have long odds to win their first NBA title in 12 years.

Before a raucous home crowd in San Antonio, the Spurs thrashed the Thunder 118-97 in Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals. With the win, the Spurs pushed the defending champion Thunder to a decisive Game 7 on Saturday night. On Kalshi, San Antonio’s probability to win the title spiked to 27% as of Friday. Prior to the win, the Spurs had odds of 15% to capture the title.

Holders of New York Knicks’ tickets appear to be the greatest beneficiary of the Spurs victory. Returning to the Finals for the first time in 27 years, the Knicks’ odds improved to 33% on Friday, an 11% increase from the previous day.

The Thunder defeat pushed their odds down to 43%, a five-point decline. Victor Wembanyama paced the Spurs on Thursday with 28 points and 10 rebounds, his ninth 20-10 game of the playoffs. The mark is the most by anyone in the NBA playoffs since Nikola Jokic recorded 13 in 2023.

Odds on the Spurs’ rangy 7”5 center to win Finals MVP largely track their title chances. Wembanyama ranked second on Friday at 28%, behind the Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous Alexander (43%). Knicks gaurd Jalen Brunson is a close third at 27%.

Matt Rybaltowski

Matt is primarily responsible for long-form feature coverage on complex sports betting scandals. He also provides coverage on finance, M&A and other technological developments.