CIRO Tightens Canada’s Prediction Market Restrictions

Canada’s investment regulator has strengthened restrictions on prediction markets, prohibiting sports and entertainment contracts and requiring brokers to hide unauthorised markets. The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) published the updated requirements on 16 October 2026, building on joint guidance with the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) issued in August.

The changes affect firms offering event contracts through Canadian investment accounts, including brokers connected to international prediction exchanges. CIRO says displaying products that clients cannot trade could create confusion about which services regulators have approved.

Brokers Must Hide Prohibited Markets

CIRO’s updated terms prohibit investment dealer members from trading or facilitating sports and entertainment event contracts. Previously, restrictions limited permitted markets to areas such as economic, financial and environmental forecasts, leaving the exclusion of sports and entertainment implicit.

The new rules also cover advertising and display. Brokers cannot promote prohibited contracts or show them to Canadian clients when those products are unavailable for trading. CIRO warned that such exposure could mislead consumers about authorised services and undermine its restrictions.

The regulator has also defined event contracts broadly, covering products described as event contracts, prediction contracts, prediction market contracts or forecast contracts. This wording applies the rules according to a product’s function rather than the label a company uses.

In August, the Canadian Gaming Association welcomed the distinction between financial-market products and gambling-style offerings. The association said: “CSA and CIRO have drawn a clear and sensible line: the distinction between a sports contract and a sports bet should not be reduced to semantics.”

Only Selected Markets Qualify

CIRO permits certain event contracts tied to financial indicators, economic data and environmental measurements, subject to conditions. These include a minimum resolution period of 30 days and a ban on leverage. Contracts must have an objective basis for determining outcomes.

Only two firms have approval to offer event contracts in Canada: Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthsimple. Interactive Brokers introduced its offering in April 2025 through ForecastEx, an exchange owned by the company and regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Wealthsimple later introduced its Predict platform, distributing selected Kalshi contracts. Its Canadian offering excludes sports and entertainment markets, unlike Kalshi’s broader US selection.

The revised display requirements mean approved brokers must assess contracts before showing them to Canadian customers. Blocking a trade alone is insufficient if an ineligible market remains visible through product feeds, search results or promotional material.

Wider Oversight Remains Possible

Other companies have applied for permission to offer event contracts. CIRO and the CSA say they will continue monitoring the market and may issue further guidance or introduce additional restrictions.

International platforms without CIRO membership are not authorised to offer prediction markets in Canada under this framework. Polymarket, serving a two-year ban in Ontario set to expire next April, has said it blocked access in several provinces. Reports have nevertheless indicated that Canadian users can still trade on the platform in some areas, including on Canadian elections, a category unavailable through CIRO-approved dealers.

The updated requirements place greater responsibility on authorised brokers to screen what Canadian customers see and what they can trade.