Genius Sports projects over $1bn in 2026 revenue

Genius Sports has raised its revenue and EBITDA expectations for 2026 after signing partnerships with the two biggest prediction markets companies in Q3 and chipping away at its net loss.

The firm’s Q3 results showed that its net loss year-to-date remains much higher than last year at $147.9m (£131.8m), up 62% from $90m the year prior. The Q3 figure marks an improvement of 45.5% from $15.7m to $28.8m, however.

Much of the loss will be associated with the lingering effects of the acquisition of sports media business Legend for a hefty sum of $1.2bn earlier this year. 

A lack of market confidence in the takeover initially saw Genius Sports’ share price fall, but the group has remained adamant over the months since that acquiring Legend was the right move for its business.

And on the topic of the right moves, the group is particularly confident in the progress it has made penning partnerships in the prediction markets space. 

Q3 saw the firm sign deals with Kalshi and Polymarket, the two biggest prediction markets platforms globally, the former having secured a valuation of $40bn just last week. It also launched a prediction markets comparison site, Prediction.com.

Having built up a large network of sports partners including the Premier League and National Football League (NFL), Genius is now looking to leverage the data it gains from these partners to get in on the growing prediction markets scene.

Leadership expects to close 2026 with revenue in the range of $1.015bn-$1.035bn and adjusted EBITDA between $287m-$297m.

“Our predictable betting business, expanding bedia capabilities and growing opportunities in prediction markets position us to capture greater value from the data, technology and infrastructure we have spent 25 years building,” said Mark Locke, Genius Sports Founder and Chief Executive Officer.

“Legend is also creating additional commercial value, and we are seeing the benefits of our combined scale. Our strategy is working, and we are well positioned to deliver sustained growth, profitability and free cash flow.”

Genius’ Media Technology, Content and Service saw the largest growth margins both in Q3 and YTD, with revenue rising by 33.4% to $152.9m ($51.6m) in the former and by 110.3% to $236.8m ($112.6m) in the latter.

The Betting Technology, Content and Services division, meanwhile, saw revenue increase 62.3% to $269.9m ($166.3m) during Q3 while it rose by 31.7% to $416.5m ($316.4m).

Group-wide revenue was up 62.3% to $269.9m ($166.3m) while EBITDA was up 156.4% to $87.1m ($34m), with YTD revenue coming in at $653.3m, 52.3% up from $429m the year prior, and EBITDA at $163.7m, up 86.2% from $87.9m.

Company leadership has taken further confidence from the $54m in free cash flow recorded during Q3, with Locke stating that this “demonstrates the cash-generating power of the combined business and reflects the performance we always believed our model could deliver”.