Super Group cuts 2026 guidance after $40m sports hit as casino and UK growth hold up

Super Group has lowered its 2026 revenue and earnings targets after sports results that favoured customers cost it about $40m in third-quarter revenue. Online casino growth, a rising UK business and a $150m buyback show where the Betway and Spin owner is placing its bets for the months ahead.

Super Group has lowered its 2026 targets three months after raising them. The group now expects adjusted EBITDA of $700m–$720m, against the more than $710m it guided to in August. The new revenue range of $2.525bn–$2.575bn also sits below the more than $2.6bn the company expected in August.

The trigger was sport. Chief financial officer Alinda van Wyk said results that went customers’ way pushed the sports margin below its trailing 24-month average of 13.7%. Management estimated the hit at about $25m of quarterly adjusted EBITDA, according to an Investing.com transcript of the earnings call. The revised guidance assumes the fourth-quarter sports margin stays within the company’s normal range.

Online casino carried the quarter as betting revenue slipped

Revenue for the three months to 30 September rose 10% to $611m, compared with $557m a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% to $165m from $152m. Average monthly active customers increased 9% to 6.0 million from 5.5 million.

Online casino did the heavy lifting. In the International segment, which includes Europe, iGaming revenue rose 6.9% to $310m. Sportsbook revenue there fell 8.3% to $33m. Segment revenue rose to $344m from $328m.

Africa grew faster. iGaming revenue in the region climbed 21.3% to $205m, while sportsbook revenue edged up to $57m from $55m. Africa made up 43% of reportable segment revenue, up from 41% a year earlier.

Europe brought in $115m, up from $108m. Over nine months, European revenue reached $360m, against $312m a year earlier. Management told analysts that European revenue grew 6%, led by a 13% rise in the UK, Benzinga’s transcript of the call shows. Total wagering rose 11% for casino and 4% for sports. International adjusted EBITDA grew 24% to $93m. Even with a heavier tax bill, the segment’s margin expanded by upwards of 400 basis points.

The figures are consistent with casino growth offsetting weaker sports margins. For UK and European rivals, that mix points to resilience in the British market even in a poor quarter for sportsbook results.

Cash pile funds buyback as Germany moves closer

The softer quarter followed a strong one. Second-quarter revenue reached a record $684m, up 18% from $579m, and profit for that period was $123m.

Super Group ended September with $602m in cash, 30% more than a year earlier. It returned about $223m to shareholders over the previous 12 months, including around $25m in dividends in the third quarter. The new buyback adds to those returns.

Management listed Namibia, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, New Zealand, Germany and Kenya as growth opportunities for 2027. In Germany, chief executive Neal Menashe said the group now has online slots approval and hopes to go live soon.