AGA Forecasts $30B in Legal Bets on Upcoming NFL Season, Prediction Markets Poised to Make Impact

Nothing attracts the interest of U.S. sports bettors more than the National Football League, and the American Gaming Association estimates that $30 billion in legal wagers will be made on the 2025-26 NFL season.

That record figure would mark an 8.5% increase over last season’s handle of $27.6 billion. This season’s estimate for NFL handle at regulated U.S. sportsbooks will include futures bets (made since March), as well as wagers on every game during the preseason, regular season, and playoffs, including Super Bowl 60.

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller stated: “Fans have more ways than ever to responsibly engage with the game they love. Legal sports betting enhances the fun and friendly competition that make NFL games and traditions even more special.”

The AGA oversees legal betting at licensed sportsbooks in 38 states and the District of Columbia. The AGA said 75% of Americans support legal sports wagering in their home state, and 90% view sports betting as an acceptable form of entertainment.

One big question entering the new football season: How many Americans will use prediction markets to augment their action on the NFL?

Prediction Markets Threaten to Disrupt U.S. Sportsbooks

The rise of prediction markets could negatively impact NFL handle at U.S. sportsbooks. Despite the legal challenges facing companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, both of those market leaders have been gearing up for a big football season.

Kalshi expanded its NFL markets with the self-certification of point spreads, totals, and touchdown prop betting. Polymarket, which bills itself as the world’s largest prediction market, is set to relaunch in the U.S. following its acquisition of QCEX. The company is aggressively targeting states that don’t have legal gambling for the football season.

It remains to be seen how many NFL bettors will embrace buying and selling football contracts as an alternative to placing bets. But there’s no denying that Kalshi and Polymarket could become major game changers during a landmark NFL season.

The NFL also announced this week that it makes no distinction between prediction markets and sports betting. Will football bettors view things similarly?

Unregulated Sportsbooks Take Huge Cut of NFL Action

The AGA released study findings earlier this month, revealing that Americans wagered $84 billion with illegal bookies and offshore sportsbooks in the past year. That translated to $5 billion in revenue and $1 billion in tax losses, according to the AGA.

Another report by Yield Sec found that unregulated online gambling generated $67.1 billion in revenue in 2024, nearly triple the $23 billion generated by regulated online platforms. 

Neither study included a sport-by-sport breakdown for money wagered at legal vs. illegal books, but given football’s unrivaled status as America’s most bet game, that’s some serious money flowing overseas.

The AGA’s Miller said at the time: “Illegal gambling operators are thriving at the expense of American consumers, siphoning billions in tax revenue from state governments, and undercutting the efforts of the legal market. It’s time for a national crackdown on the pervasive illegal market that is draining state coffers and putting people at risk.”