Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

The long-awaited return of quarterback Lamar Jackson highlights tonight’s edition of Thursday Night Football between the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video.

The Ravens (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) somehow find themselves two games out of first place in the AFC North. The Dolphins (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a dominant 34-10 win over the Falcons last week.

DraftKings is dealing Baltimore as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 51.5. As of this writing, 82% of the handle and 69% of the tickets are on the Ravens at DraftKings.

Best Ravens vs. Dolphins Bet on Total (OVER/UNDER)

OVER 51.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

This game features two of the NFL’s worst defenses. Baltimore ranks 30th in allowing 30.0 points per game. Miami, ranked 26th, isn’t much better at 26.9 ppg.

Jackson (hamstring) has been sidelined for more than a month, but the South Florida native must be salivating at the prospect of facing Miami’s defense. In four career games against the Dolphins, Jackson has thrown 14 TDs and averaged 300 passing yards. He also averages just a shade under 50 rushing yards in those games with an additional TD on the ground.

The combination of Jackson and RB Derrick Henry could be too much for Miami’s porous defense to handle. The Dolphins rank near the bottom of the league, allowing an average of 145 rushing yards per game.

Miami got its offense on track last week against Atlanta. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards and four TDs. With top WR Tyreek Hill out for the season with a dislocated knee, Jalen Waddle picked up the slack with 99 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’s now got six TD catches on the season.

RB De’von Achane is another weapon for Miami, as he leads the team with 539 rushing yards and seven total TDs. A slight lean toward taking the home dog and the points tonight, but we’re on the OVER due to both teams’ defensive deficiencies.

Baltimore is 6-1 to the OVER this season. The OVER has hit in seven of Miami’s eight games. That’s enough supporting evidence for us.

Best TNF Player Prop for Ravens

Lamar Jackson OVER 33.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

This is a relatively low bar for Jackson to hurdle. He’s gone over this number in three of four games played this season. Before injuring his hamstring, Jackson amassed 48 yards in his last game against the Chiefs.

Considering there were still more than 8 minutes remaining in the third quarter when he exited the game, Jackson’s total could have been considerably higher against Kansas City.

Jackson averages 41.5 rushing yards per game this season. He could pad that stat by doing serious damage against the Dolphins. He’s also had at least six carries in three of four games.

Best TNF Player Prop for Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa OVER 217.5 Passing Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

It’s been an up-and-down season for Tagovailoa. The left-handed QB is averaging only 189.75 passing yards per game, and he has been picked off 10 times this season. That ties him with Las Vegas QB Geno Smith for most in the NFL.

So why play this prop tonight? Because the Ravens give it up big-time through the air. The Ravens allow 250 passing yards per game. Last week, Chicago QB Caleb Williams torched Baltimore with 285 passing yards.

Tagovailoa has only eclipsed this number in two of eight games this year, but this is a primo matchup against Baltimore’s shaky secondary.

Best TNF Same-Game Parlay for Ravens vs. Dolphins

We’ll take our three selections here and see if we can cash an SGP that checks in at +390 odds.

• OVER 51.5
• Lamar Jackson OVER 33.5 rushing yards
• Tua Tagovailoa OVER 217.5 passing yards

At +390, you have a 20.41% implied probability of winning this parlay. A $25 bet will return $97.60 in profit and your stake back if it hits.