Best MNF Bets Include Miami Cover, Achane TD

The Miami Dolphins will brave the cold tonight on Monday Night Football, clashing with the Pittsburgh Steelers at Accrisure Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. on ABC/ESPN.

The Dolphins (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) need to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Steelers (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) sit atop a very lackluster AFC North, a half-game ahead of the Ravens.

DraftKings is dealing Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite with a total of 42.5, and bettors are trending toward the chalk. As of this writing, 81% of DraftKings Sportsbook’s patrons laid the points with the Steelers.

We’re opting for a contrarian approach again after taking the Falcons +5.5 over the Bucs on Thursday Night Football. Atlanta won the game outright.

Dolphins vs. Steelers: Best Bet Against the Spread

Miami carries a four-game winning streak into tonight’s tilt. The Dolphins have taken the onus off QB Tua Tagovailoa and turned to a running game led by De’Von Achane.

The key to success is to utilize a run-heavy offense, drain the clock, and keep Aaron Rodgers & Co. on the sideline. It’s worked for the past month, and could again against a Pittsburgh defense that won’t have T.J. Watt (collapsed lung) in the lineup.

Achane has amassed more than 1,500 scrimmage yards with a team-leading 11 touchdowns. Jaylen Wright is also a capable runner. He broke out with a 107-yard rushing game (and a TD) in last week’s 34-10 win over the Jets.

The Steelers are ranked 28th in total defense, allowing 369.3 yards per game and 33 touchdowns on the season. Miami will have its fair share of scoring opportunities tonight. Expect the Dolphins to take advantage of them.

Defensively, the Dolphins have allowed just 17 points or fewer in the past four games. They’ve also benefitted from 10 turnovers during that span.

You’ll read a lot about Miami’s struggles in cold-weather games under 40 degrees. As the head coach, McDaniel is 0-7, and Tua is 0-5. Every streak must come to an end, though, and the Dolphins notably practiced in Pittsburgh on Saturday night.

The weather forecast calls for 18 degrees and 9 mph winds at kickoff. That’s all the more reason to run the ball, something the Dolphins have done exceedingly well during their current four-game winning streak.

Pick: Dolphins +3 (-102 at DraftKings)

Best Player Prop for Dolphins  

De’Von Achane ATTD Scorer (-120 at DraftKings)

With Tyreek Hill (knee) done for the season, Achane took over as Miami’s most dynamic player. He endured a slight rib injury against the Jets, but is expected to be a full-go tonight.

McDaniels did not allow Achane to play in the second half of last week’s game as a precautionary move. The dynamic runner/receiver amassed 108 scrimmage yards and a TD on just eight carries in the first half. He’s scored in five of his past six games and will benefit from Miami’s renewed run-first approach against Pittsburgh tonight.

Best Player Prop for Steelers

Kenneth Gainwell OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards (-112 at FanDuel)

Gainwell has become Pittsburgh’s pass-catching specialist out of the backfield. He’s been targeted 24 times in the past four games. Gainwell caught 21 of those passes and averaged 40.8 yards per game during that span.

Another factor working in Gainwell’s favor tonight? Pittsburgh’s RB1 Jaylen Warren is listed as questionable with an illness tonight. Gainwell’s workload will increase significantly if Warren is out. Even if he plays, Warren will likely be less than 100%.