France and Spain collide in the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup on Tuesday. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is 3 p.m. ET with live coverage on FOX.
France is the -150 favorite to advance at Kalshi, with an implied probability of 60%. Spain is a +144 underdog (41%). Kalshi again offers better moneyline odds than DraftKings on both teams.
France vs. Spain Odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
| France (moneyline in regulation) | 42% | +138 |
| Spain (moneyline in regulation) | 29% | +245 |
| Draw | 30% | +233 |
| Over 2.5 goals scored | 21% | +376 |
| France -1.5 goals | 52% | -108 |
Best Bet France vs. Spain
France to Advance (-150)
After producing five clean sheets to start the World Cup, Spain finally conceded a goal in its 2-1 win over Belgium. La Roja got goals from Fabian Ruiz and Mikel Merino to advance against France.
Les Bleus beat Morocco 2-0, and Kylian Mbappe scored his eighth goal of the World Cup to tie Lionel Messi for the Golden Boot Award. At Kalshi, Mbappe is the -150 favorite to win the award, with Messi priced at +213.
The last time these two teams met was in the 2025 UEFA Nations League semifinals. Spain won in an explosive game for both sides, 5-4, on a goal by wunderkind Lamine Yamal.
Yamal, who turned 19 today, entered the World Cup after being slowed by a hamstring injury. He’s mostly been contained, scoring just one goal across six matches.
France struggled at times along the back line in group play, but its defense has been better in the knockout round. It has now produced three consecutive clean sheets.
Spain is a high-possession team, and as mentioned, its defense has been stellar. But its offense has failed to generate consistent scoring opportunities throughout the World Cup. It will have to be better to get past France.
In the final analysis, expect France to advance with a 2-1 win.
Best Player Prop for France vs. Spain
Kylian Mbappe (+117)
Don’t overthink this one. Mbappe has been otherworldly in this competition, playing at a level no one but Messi can match among the teams still alive.
Mbappe’s still averaging a goal per every World Cup match he’s played after scoring his 20th in the win over Morocco. Anything at plus-money odds is acceptable for this prop. He’s the -150 favorite to win the Golden Boot award at Kalshi for a reason.
It’d be no surprise to see him finish the World Cup as the only double-digit scorer after finding the back of the net eight times in six games.
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