Illinois State vs. Montana State FCS Championship Odds & Picks

The Illinois State Redbirds and Montana State Bobcats clash tonight in the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision game. ESPN has live coverage from FirstBank Stadium in Nashville starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Illinois State (12-4) is one win away from its first national championship. The improbable rise of the Redbirds is one of college football’s feel-good stories of the new year.

Montana State (13-2) appeared in last year’s FCS Championship, losing to North Dakota State (NDSU) in a 35-32 thriller. The Bobcats also lost to NDSU in the 2021 FSC Championship, 38-10.

Montana State has won national championships in the NAIA, Division II, and Division I-AA, which is now the FCS. That title came back in 1984, with a 19-6 win over Louisiana Tech.

DraftKings was dealing Montana State as a 10-point favorite with a total of 57.5 as of publication. Can the underdog Redbirds complete their Cinderella run tonight?

Best Bet Illinois State vs. Montana State: Against the Spread

Expect plenty of points tonight, as both of these teams can light up the scoreboard. Montana State averages 38.1 points per game, and Illinois State checks in with 30.6 ppg.

Montana State is loaded offensively. Quarterback Justin Lamson has thrown for 2,892 yards and 24 touchdowns. He’s only been picked off three times. Lamson also gets it done with his legs, with over 700 yards on the ground and 14 rushing TDs on the season.

Lamson’s top target in the passing game is WR Taco Dowler, who’s amassed 914 receiving yards on 69 catches to go with six TDs.

The Bobcats also have two burners in the backfield. Both Julius Davis and Adam Jones eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards and combined for 26 TDs. Jones leads the team with 17 total TDs.

Illinois State counters with quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse, who can flat-out sling it with 3,257 passing yards and 36 touchdowns this season. One thing to watch: Will Rittenhouse protect the ball better tonight? He’s prone to throwing picks, with 12 interceptions this year.

That’s problematic against an opportunistic Montana State defense that has 16 interceptions. Ball-hawking DB Caden Dowler has accounted for six of those.

Illinois State needs a big performance from RB Victor Dawson, who leads the team with 1,251 rushing yards along with five touchdowns. Ideally, the Redbirds use the ground game to keep Lamson and company on the sideline for as long as possible.

In the end, though, the high-octane Montana State offense should pull away in a game that goes OVER the total.

Pick: Montana State 38, Illinois State 24

Best Player Prop for Montana State

QB Justin Lamson OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (+110 at DraftKings)

Lamson leads one of the country’s most explosive FCS offenses. He’s thrown for a pair of TDs in both playoff games so far.

While Lamson is more than capable of scoring rushing TDs, too, we’ll bet that he extends his multiple-TD passing performance at these plus-money odds.

Best Player Prop for Illinois State

QB Tommy Rittenhouse OVER 205.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

This is a curious line for a quarterback who’s cleared this number with ease in all three of his FCS playoff games.

• 249 yards, 3 passing TDs vs. NDSU (29-28 win)
• 266 yards, 3 passing TDs vs. UCD (42-31 win)
• 251 yards, 2 passing TDs vs. Villanova (30-14 win)

It’s worth noting that Rittenhouse threw seven interceptions in those three games, but still had no trouble covering this number. Montana State gives up a shade over 200 passing yards per game. We fully expect Rittenhouse to be playing from behind tonight, and that should help us cash this ticket.