Kalshi co-founder targeting Brazil predictions entry in 2026

Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of US prediction market platform Kalshi, said the company is exploring a possible expansion into Brazil in 2026 in an interview with Valor. 

New York-based Kalshi has been one of the biggest disruptors of 2025 in the gambling sector, causing a stir with its contracts on major events. Its detractors claim that its expansion into sports contracts circumvents state regulations on betting. 

Despite the potential legal and regulatory risks, US betting giants DraftKings and FanDuel have followed in Kalshi’s footsteps, with the two market leaders both launching prediction market products earlier this month. Both partnered with CME Group to list their contracts.  

And in terms of markets, Lopes Lara, a Brazilian herself, has highlighted her home country as a potential expansion opportunity for the company next year. 

According to Lopes Lara, the business is “just getting started” after its third round of fundraising this year gave Kalshi an $11 billion valuation. 

“One of the first things we announced after the round was our plan to expand internationally,” Lopes Lara told Brazlian news outlet Valor. “Brazil means a lot to me. I really want us to operate there.  

“We’re still studying how to do it, but I hope we can announce something in early 2026.” 

Potential Brazil entry still in early stages 

Lopes Lara says there’s nothing currently like Kalshi on the market in Brazil, which launched its regulated online betting market in 2025. 

Neither the Brazil betting regulator, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), nor the Brazil Securities Commission have yet expressed their opinions on prediction markets. But the product has proven hugely controversial in the US, with a number of court battles this year with state regulators and Indian tribes.

In late November, a Nevada federal judge reversed a major legal victory for Kalshi, dissolving a preliminary injunction that had prevented the state from taking legal action against the platform for offering what it considers to be illegal gambling.  

Kalshi is embroiled in legal action in several other states as well, including in Connecticut, where it is currently suing the state after its regulator issued cease-and-desist letters accusing the platform of offering illegal sports betting. 

Kalshi argues it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not subject to state gambling laws.

But with the SPA making attempts to increase the financial safety of the betting sector in Brazil, it’s unlikely the regulator will be very supportive of Kalshi’s attempts to introduce predictions markets.

Additionally, the government is taking significant steps to increase the tax burden on betting operators. With prediction markets potentially sitting outside of that framework, Kalshi’s entrance is likely to face strong resistance.

Kyle Goldsmith

Kyle has been with Clarion since December 2023, joining from the world of sports journalism, subsequently becoming a LatAm-facing senior reporter with iGB.