Kalshi’s Claim of $100 Billion Annualized Volume Met with Doubt

Kalshi said Monday it had crossed $100 billion in annualized trading volume. However, the assertion drew skepticism, as industry observers noted the figure was derived by taking the platform’s strongest trading week on record and projecting it across a full year.

Kalshi recorded $1.98 billion in volume over the seven days ending January 4. To get to the $100 billion estimate, the company multiplied that total by 52, despite the period coinciding with the final weekend of the NFL regular season and the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.

“That’s a pretty unserious way to arrive at annual volume,” gambling industry analyst Dustin Gouker wrote on The Event Horizon.

Sports Calendar Drives Volume Fluctuations

Kalshi’s trading volume is heavily tied to the sports calendar, with sports accounting for more than 90% of total activity on the site. The final three months of the year are typically the busiest period, as football and basketball seasons overlap.

Sports betting handle usually drops by one-third to one-half during the summer compared with peak periods. Kalshi posted weekly volumes of roughly $1.3 billion in early December, before activity accelerated into year-end.

The platform recorded $403 million in volume on January 5 alone, driven by a busy slate of NFL games, including a Ravens vs Steelers game on Sunday night decided on the final play. 

Recent Liquidity Additions Fuel Growth

Kalshi has added significant liquidity in recent weeks through third-party integrations. Coinbase launched its prediction market product with Kalshi Markets on December 17. Coinbase reported 9.3 million monthly transacting users in Q3, according to The Block.

Phantom, a crypto wallet, fully launched its prediction markets powered by Kalshi on December 22. Kalshi’s news item on the integration stated Phantom has 20 million users, though monthly active users would be lower.

Kalshi also announced tokenized versions of its markets on Solana at the start of December. The platform saw 800,000 downloads in December, though it remains unclear how many users converted to depositing and trading customers.

Resolution Error Mars Growth Narrative

The volume announcement come as Kalshi faces backlash for incorrectly grading NFL win total markets. The platform settled the markets before the season ended, then initially reimbursed only the original stake to users who held correct positions — not the full winnings owed.

One user complained on social media that the San Francisco 49ers “won over 10.5 games. The market should have been settled as such. There is literally no reason why not.”

“These markets were erroneously determined early, so everyone was reimbursed cost plus fees,” Shan, a Kalshi operations representative, responded in a Discord channel.

After industry criticism, Kalshi reversed course. In an email to affected users, the platform said it would pay the full $1 contract settlement value to users who held correct “yes” positions at expiration.

Sustaining Volume After Football Season

Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour responded to the volume announcement on X.

 “It feels surreal,” Mansour wrote. “We have so much more to learn and so much more to do.”

To get to a true level of $100 billion in annualized volume, user adoption of non-sports markets would need to increase materially. The World Cup in the U.S. this summer could provide a temporary boost. Midterm election trading later in the year represents another potential driver. 

Whether Kalshi can maintain $2 billion weekly volumes remains uncertain as the football season winds down. After the Super Bowl and March Madness, the platform’s performance will hinge on whether trading activity can hold outside the peak sports calendar.

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