‘We Have Zero Chance to Win’

Sportsbooks are bracing again for yet another defeat as the NFL Draft begins tonight. The books always enter the draft with equal parts trepidation and loathing, and this year is no different.

“Bookmakers hate the draft,” Circa Sports Director of Operations Jeff Benson said. “It is tons of work for no gain, and we have zero chance to win. We torch five to six figures a year on [it].”

Why is this a difficult event for sportsbooks? In the uber information age we live in, they can’t keep pace with sharp bettors seeking actionable intel.

“Dealing with any draft market, really for most places, it’s not a matter of whether you win or lose, it’s just a question of how much you lose,” Borgata Sportsbook Director Thomas Gable said. “The sharper customers are going to beat you to information.”

Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told me three years ago that he didn’t “like the draft, but it’s just something that we do. You have no control over it. There’s just no control. It’s not like a game where stuff happens, mistakes happen.”

Unlike an actual game, this is an information market, and as Ben Fawkes writes, “…Once credible information comes out and is wagered on, the market can move quickly — and no money will come back on the other side. And that information could come as quickly as one post on X from ESPN’s Adam Schefter.”

DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello echoed those sentiments.

“The draft has never been an easy proposition to book because it doesn’t rely on power ratings,” Avello said. “It isn’t this team versus this team, factor in home-field advantage, etc. It’s all about information.”

Sportsbooks Alter Their Approach to Reduce Exposure

Sportsbooks have taken certain measures to reduce the risk of undue liability on the NFL Draft. These include:

• Opening markets later
• Lowering limits on bets
• Offering fewer betting options

As a result, there are far fewer opportunities for sharp bettors to gouge the sportsbooks. Matt Freedman, who’s been betting the NFL Draft since 2018, ranks among those being affected.

“I think in the 2021 NFL Draft, I had over 300 different bets, which was an unreal number,” Freedman said. “But because the books got killed in 2020 and 2021, I don’t see the incentive for them to revert back to those wide-open markets. What we have now is pretty representative of what we’ll have going forward. I would say it’s dried up for professionals.”