Donald Trump is known to love a deal. On October 28, 2025, the US President’s media platform announced an exclusive arrangement with Crypto.com to allow crypto betting. This makes Truth Social the world’s first social media platform to offer its users access to prediction markets.
Key Beats
- US President Donald Trump’s media company has partnered with Crypto.com to launch Truth Predict, a platform that offers prediction markets to Truth Social users.
- Trump Media’s stock rose over 6% after the news broke.
- The proposed partnership elicits diverse opinions, with supporters heralding it as an innovation and critics suggesting it could be used to influence elections.
A New Era of Trump Prediction Markets
Political prediction markets have long been a niche and interesting way to wager. They are a hybrid between betting games and financial experiments, where traders can bet on everything from election outcomes to box office successes. Thanks to Trump’s media influence, the concept is now going mainstream.
The Trump social media platform, Truth Social, will now be able to offer prediction markets directly on the app thanks to an impending partnership with Crypto.com. The new venture, Truth Predict, will mark the first time a political figure’s media empire has entered this space.
Is the Time Right for Truth Social Crypto.com Partnership?
Prediction markets are booming right now, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi raking in over $1.4 billion in monthly trading volume. That proves that there’s serious money and interest in these markets.
Should the marketplace be concerned about a potential Polymarket vs. Truth Predict scenario? Not really. The Truth Social user base alone indicates that there is room for more blockchain betting platforms.
The Truth Predict platform boasts a world-class team consisting of Devin Nunes and Eric Swider, so it’s no coincidence that the Trump Media Technology Group is positioning itself at the intersection of media, finance, and politics by rolling out Truth Predict. Overnight, they have jumped to the front of an incredibly lucrative market, with both investors and exchanges such as CME and ICE closely watching.
A Brief History of Political Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have existed for decades. Like everything else, political prediction markets, especially, have morphed into a mature and accepted form of crypto gambling. Along the way, there have been many milestones, beginning with Iowa Electronic Markets and continuing to today’s global blockchain platforms.
Key Events
- Iowa Electronic Markets history: In the 1980s to 1990s, a few clever academics at the University of Iowa created the first real-money markets to predict elections. These markets allowed users to trade real-money contracts based on political outcomes, and they worked well. The tiny markets often beat traditional polls, showing that collective betting can be incredibly accurate.
- Betfair & Intrade popularized prediction betting: In the early 2000s, betting platforms such as Intrade and Betfair made prediction markets accessible to everyone.
- Prediction markets regulation: As with any financial product or service, popularity encourages scrutiny. U.S. regulators began cracking down on unlicensed markets, making prediction markets regulation critical to fairness and safety.
- The rise of blockchain: Prediction markets have evolved, with blockchain betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi becoming key players. They are decentralized, transparent, secure, and open to users worldwide. Political prediction markets are now bigger and more exciting than they have ever been.
The Trump Crypto Partnership of the Century
In terms of mixing politics, media, and money, President Trump possesses a flair for the dramatic. The Trump media crypto.com deal is a bold move, indicative of the Donald Trump style we’ve seen so many times before.
Prediction markets come to Trump Media is the headline nobody was expecting. Today, Truth Social has become the first social media platform to integrate prediction markets into its portfolio. It’s a groundbreaking move, and its significance is reflected in Trump Media’s stock, which jumped more than 6% after the Trump Media crypto.com deal was announced.
Key Takeaways From the Trump Media Crypto.com Deal
The Mechanics
After launch, Truth Social users will be able to bet on everything from political elections and sporting events to economic forecasts directly on the social media platform. They will be able to do this using CRO tokens, Crypto.com’s native coin, or the in-app currency known as Truth Gems.
Market Reaction
The Trump Crypto partnership makes it the first-ever social media platform to integrate prediction markets into its platform. As a result, CRO tokens are already spiking as investors react to this unexpected collaboration.
A Political Twist
While rivals like Polymarket or Kalshi are by no means insignificant competitors, Truth Predict carries the respected personal brand of one of the most powerful men on earth.
Now that prediction markets are coming to Trump Media, expect future developments to move fast. Thanks to the Trump Media Crypto.com deal, interest in the bitcoin casinos is already exploding.
Truth Predict Platform Overview
Trump Media Technology Group’s Truth Social was born in 2022 after mainstream social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter (now X) suspended Donald Trump’s official accounts.
The idea behind Truth Social was to create a space where free speech wouldn’t be censored. Truth Social is now part political forum, part news feed, and part fan club for its users.
The Truth Social user base boasts around 6 million active users. It’s a small number compared to X or Facebook, but according to Statista, the user base is mostly made up of men of means. They tend to be U.S.-based and Republican-leaning and frequently show up in force during election season or when Trump makes headlines.
Why Does This Matter?
Truth Social users are known to have strong opinions and close community ties. Trump’s posts often circulate within like-minded circles, creating what critics refer to as an echo chamber. Now that prediction markets have come to Trump Media in the form of Truth Predict, bets, as well as opinions, could overlap, and sentiment may influence the odds.
Weaponization of Prediction Markets
At their core, prediction markets are meant to be simple, and they are. People place bets on real-world events like elections or sports, and the combined results show what the masses believe will happen.
With the news that Trump Media is entering the prediction markets business, the balance could take a sharp political turn. Politics, money, and media could potentially start to blend together. In this scenario, Donald Trump’s prediction markets could blur the line between genuine forecasting and political messaging.
Potential Problem Points
- Subscribers may get used to seeing headlines like “Vance Predicted to Win in 2028” simply because Truth Social users are speculating on the Republican Party nomination. The narrative could be seen to be a campaign message, whether or not it’s actually true.
- A portion of the Truth Social user base is already pro-Trump, meaning predictions might reflect political loyalty more than true forecasting.
- Should mainstream media pick up on those odds, they may choose to amplify the story further to use Trump’s media influence for their own purposes.
- The CFTC has already asked Polymarket to pay a penalty for skirting betting laws. It is not beyond probability that the CFTC could be used by Trump’s political opponents to levy similar penalties on Truth Predict.
Crypto.com’s CEO, Corbin Fraser, has long-standing ties with Trump, including making donations to the Republican Party. That connection could make this partnership look less like a simple business deal and more like a strategic alliance.
Prediction Markets Regulation & Ethical Questions
This is where things get really tricky. Political prediction markets have always made U.S. regulators nervous, and for good reason. Agencies like the CFTC and SEC worry that the line between legitimate political forecasting and interference with democracy could be blurred.
Trump Media is staying on the safe side by teaming up with Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), which is a CFTC-registered exchange. In simple terms, Truth Predict will operate under US financial regulations, with contracts traded under federal oversight.
The Future of Truth Predict and Prediction Markets
There is no getting around it, the Truth Predict platform is here to stay. Either it will be a total game-changer or a failed Trump vanity project.
Optimists claim this move could finally make prediction markets mainstream. Instead of just analysts and insiders, anyone with an opinion (and a few dollars or crypto coins) can take part.
However, not everyone’s sold on the project. Critics are warning that mixing politics, profit, and prediction could make elections and primaries messy. Could it happen that market odds start shaping headlines, or political predictions become a campaign message? To be truthful, it’s unlikely. The USA has no shortage of media organizations, both local and national, that already shape the political narrative during an election year.
Should Truth Social look to widen its net, then Europe and Asia are seen as catchment areas too. In these jurisdictions, prediction markets, despite being seen as gambling, could bring considerable credibility to Truth Predict.
Conclusion
Truth Social has definitely entered uncharted territory with Truth Predict. Concerns about influence, regulation, and democracy are raising eyebrows around the world.
Political prediction markets walk a fine line between innovation and controversy. Now that prediction markets have come to Trump Media, the stakes are even higher.
The Truth Predict platform could mean that these markets finally go mainstream, and give millions of people a new way to engage with politics and global events. On the other hand, it could also become the moment a gargantuan political weapon is awakened.
One thing is for sure: Donald Trump is not above taking risks, but there is no reason that you should be. As long as you always gamble responsibly, I predict a happy outcome.
FAQs
Prediction markets focus on forecasting real-world events like elections rather than pure entertainment. Bettors are basically betting on what the world will look like tomorrow.
It’s possible but unlikely. Thousands of media organizations in the USA are already only too ready to put their own political slant on the news. Truth Social’s influence only really extends to its subscriber base.
They’ll make trading faster, safer, and open to anyone. Users also love the transparency they provide.
Firmly. The CFTC and SEC have often cracked down on operators that lack proper licensing or who don’t follow the rules.
It’s possible, especially when a massive political figure such as Donald Trump is involved. However, such conflicts are unlikely to involve financial authorities. A more likely scenario could involve political opponents. In any case, as Trump cannot run in 2028, the likelihood of this is reduced.
References
- Nunes quits Congress for Trump Media job (Politico)
- Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (WSJ)
- Trump Media stock rises after announcing prediction markets venture (Investing.com)
- Truth Social – statistics & facts (Statista)
- Trump Media to join Crypto.com in prediction markets (The Washington Times)
- CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty (CFTC)
- Crypto CEOs Clamor for Access to Trump as Inauguration Day Nears (Bloomberg)
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