Spain Reaffirms Licensing Rules for Prediction Markets

Spain’s gambling regulator has reiterated that prediction market operators must obtain a domestic licence if their products fall under the country’s gambling legislation. Speaking at MERGE Madrid 2026 on October 30, Director General Mikel Arana said the legal treatment of these services depends on their product mechanics.

The Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ) maintains that platforms offering gambling activities under Law 13/2011 cannot serve Spanish customers without authorisation. The regulator also confirmed that it continues restricting access from Spain to unauthorised services.

Arana called for a clearer approach to the sector, discussed alongside cryptocurrencies, Web3 and blockchain at the conference. He identified a need for a regulatory vision that considers prediction markets and their relationship with existing betting rules.

Existing Gambling Legislation Determines Platform Access

The DGOJ’s position does not establish a separate licensing category. Authorities instead assess whether a platform’s products meet the definition of gambling under Spanish law. Arana stated: “Businesses offering products that constitute gambling must obtain the corresponding licence before serving Spanish customers.”

The regulator added: “Consequently, prediction markets that fall into this category but lack authorisation cannot legally offer their services in Spain.”

Spanish legislation covers cross bets, where an operator intermediates wagers between third parties. Authorities have previously used this classification when describing prediction market activity involving stakes on uncertain future outcomes and platform commissions.

The DGOJ began proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi in May and ordered their websites blocked as a precaution. The ministry initially estimated that the process could take three to four months. Its October 30 announcement provided no update on the proceedings or confirmation of a final decision.

European Approaches Remain Different

Spain’s position forms part of a wider debate over how regulators should classify event contracts. Malta is developing dedicated rules, while Gibraltar has sought to attract prediction market businesses. Other European authorities have restricted access to certain platforms.

Italy has blocked Polymarket, while France’s gambling regulator previously pushed the company to prevent access by French users. These measures illustrate the challenges platforms face across jurisdictions with different regulatory requirements.

International Expansion Brings Further Scrutiny

The regulatory debate is unfolding as prediction market companies pursue commercial growth. Kalshi recently secured $1bn in funding, reaching an enterprise valuation of $40bn. It also announced a partnership with S&P Dow Jones to develop indices tracking event contracts on its platform.

Co-founder and chief executive Tarek Mansour described the agreement as “the next evolution of Kalshi and its disruption of traditional markets and trading”.

Kalshi and Polymarket have reportedly approached financial market institutions, including the London Stock Exchange and Euronext, seeking support for recognising prediction markets within financial services. Data and index licensing could offer another route into international markets, although permission to provide trading remains a separate regulatory matter.

For operators considering Spain, the DGOJ’s position makes product classification central to market access. The regulator has reaffirmed existing licensing requirements while leaving the question of a dedicated framework unresolved.